"Will it rain at the park?" "Can I pick the red one?" "Will Grandma come today?" Children ask questions about chance all the time. They're already thinking about what might happen, even if they don't have the words for it yet.
Probability sounds like secondary-school maths, but its first ideas are simple and fun to explore with games at home. This article suggests three words to start with, a few hands-on games, and ways to talk about chance in daily life.
Three useful words
You can describe almost any event with three words:
- Certain: it will definitely happen. "The sun will come up tomorrow."
- Possible: it might happen, or it might not. "We might see a dog on our walk."
- Impossible: it can't happen. "Our cat will fly to the moon."
For children from around 7, you can add two more:
- Likely: it will probably happen.
- Unlikely: it probably won't happen, but it could.
These words help children say something more precise than "yes" or "no", and they open up great conversations about why.
The marble bag game
You need a cloth bag you can't see through and some small things in two or three colours: marbles, buttons or building bricks.
- Fill the bag with, say, five red marbles and one blue one. Show your child what's inside.
- Ask before drawing: "If you pick one without looking, which colour do you think will come out?"
- Draw one, look, and put it back. Repeat several times and keep a tally with marks on paper.
- Talk about the results: "Red came out much more often. Why do you think that is?"
- Change the bag: all red marbles ("Is it possible to get blue now?"), or no green at all ("Could we get green?").
That last step is where the words come alive: with only red marbles, red is certain and blue is impossible.
Sorting everyday events
Draw three columns on a sheet of paper: certain, possible, impossible. Then sort events together, using pictures for younger children.
| Event | Where does it go? |
|---|---|
| It will be dark tonight | Certain |
| It will rain tomorrow | Possible |
| We will have pasta for dinner | Possible (or certain, if it's already cooking!) |
| A fish will ride a bicycle | Impossible |
| You will grow taller this year | Very likely |
Disagreements are welcome. "It will rain tomorrow" might be "certain" for a child who saw the weather forecast. Asking "How do you know?" turns the game into real reasoning.
Rolling a die
A single die is a simple tool for exploring chance.
- Ask what's possible: "Which numbers can come up?" (1 to 6.) "Is 7 possible?"
- Make predictions: "Will you roll a 6 next?" Then try. Children are often surprised that a 6 doesn't come just because they want it.
- Keep a tally of 20 rolls: do some numbers come up more than others? With only 20 rolls, the results are often uneven, which is a nice surprise to talk about.
- Compare two dice: "Is it easier to roll two sixes, or one six?"
The goal isn't to calculate exact chances, just to notice that some things happen often, some rarely, and some never.
Likely and unlikely with a spinner
For older children, a paper spinner shows that chance depends on how things are arranged.
- Draw a circle and divide it into sections like a pie.
- Colour most sections red and just one blue.
- Spin a pencil held at the centre with a paper clip around it, and see where it points.
- Ask: "Which colour is likely? Which is unlikely? How could we make blue more likely?"
Then let your child design a spinner where blue is likely, or where both colours are equally likely.
Use the words every day
The language of chance fits naturally into daily life:
- "Do you think it's likely we'll see a bus?"
- "Is it possible that the shop is closed?"
- "Why is it impossible to swim in the bath and the sea at the same time?"
Accept your child's answers, ask for reasons, and check what really happens. Over time, children get better at predicting, and at changing their minds when new information arrives.
In short
- Start with three words: certain, possible and impossible; add likely and unlikely for older children.
- Play the marble bag game: predict, draw, tally, and change what's in the bag.
- Sort everyday events into columns and ask "How do you know?"
- Explore chance with a die and a paper spinner, and use chance words in daily conversations.
Read more: Dice games for children: counting and mental math with a pair of dice